Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.