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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.